Position: NFLX 7/17 $75C
NFLX sucks - blah blah blah. I’m frankly sick of the narrative. Since when do we care about long term investment advice? This is a 3 week play.
NFLX reports in 7/15. The stock often catches a bid into earnings because funds position early for another quarter of boring execution. I don’t need to hold through the print. I need the pre-earnings bid. Sure it’s been going down since the acquisition fell through, but it held up decently well this week all things considered.
Why $75C?
NFLX is around $71–72, so $75 only needs a 4–5% move. Break-even is about $77.37, but I’m not playing this as an expiry hold. I’m playing the move into earnings while IV and positioning matter.
Why NFLX?
Last quarter sold off on guidance/expectations, not because the business broke. Revenue is still growing, margins are strong, ads are scaling, price increases are flowing through, and the company generates real free cash flow.
Now add the buyback.
Netflix has a massive repurchase authorization, which matters because it gives management a built-in way to support EPS and return capital while the business keeps compounding. That is exactly the kind of setup institutions like into earnings: profitable growth, strong cash flow, and buybacks behind it.
Bottom Line:
Look guys, this isn’t a Wendy’s. But it could be. I have 5 contracts so far - I plan on doubling down at open in anticipation of this move starting beginning of next week.