Thesis: GME short interest may stand at minimum 107% since January 27th. Only 35% of pre-squeeze shorts may have been covered since January 27th.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."-Mark Twain
“When the rich rob the poor, it’s called business. When the poor fight back, it’s called violence.” – The Apocryphal Twain
------
I) The Short Interest Numbers
Short interest ("SI") is calculated by shares shorted over total outstanding shares. See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterest.asp; https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/shortedstock.asp. Apparently other firms have used different versions of float. All other forms of float are likely incorrect, and not likely used by Finra. This is an important assumption \- if I am wrong here, then fuck.
Edit (to above): People are suggesting my float is wrong. That is exactly my point. I am using float as outstanding shares b/c we don't know what it is. If someone actually knows the float used by FINRA, post it; this post is then useless. The math working backwards from 226% is fair game, however. That's why it's possible I'm wrong (see https://www.highshortinterest.com/). See also comment by JeanGuyRubberboots below (ctrl+f). Either way, it's remarkable that $GME on some sources is still the most shorted stock. I want to see the actual float used by FINRA. Until then, here's the math based on the SI equation.
Total outstanding shares of GME is 69.75 million. See https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics/.
Finra SI of GME is .78 as of January 27th. See http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0.
.78\*69.75 million = 54.405m. Thus, 54.045m million shares are short GME of January 27th.
To calculate real SI, we remove insider ownership. Another big assumption. Insider ownership stands at 19.06m. See https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/insider-transactions/.
Thus, free float is outstanding shares less insider ownership shares. 50,750,000 shares.
Real SI appears, at minimum, 1.07 (54.405m/50.750m).
\----
II) The Shorts Remaining and Covered
On January 15th, GME SI stood at 121%. See https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/are-these-the-best-heavily-shorted-stocks-to-buy-right-now-5-names-to-watch-2021-01-31.
Thus, from January 15th to the 27th, we know at least 84.397m shares were shorted. (1.21\*outstanding shares).
By January 27th, 54.405m shorts remained (previous short amounts minus current shorts remaining as of 1.27). The number of shorts that covered from Jan. 15th to the 27th was was 29.992m. 29.992m/84.397m shares = \~35%. Thus, 65% of shorts pre-squeeze remain, owing APR.
Around \~35% of covering resulted in a 1,600% rise. Thus, a 65% cover rate (conservative) can yield a 2,971% rise. Let’s apply this math to now. From $50, this is a $1,485.50 GME price result. Could this happen? No idea. Notice the problem with this: I'm assuming only covering led to this rise. So this is simply a demonstrative point.
New shorts from Jan. 27th to present likely opened at higher prices. 65% of those from $5, $10, $20, etc., probably remain. This is bad news for HF's.
III) The Effect
Based on estimated remaining covers, price stagnation at $50 could result in further covering and collater