The thesis behind all three is one idea: the AI buildout stopped being a software story and became a physical-infrastructure story. The bottleneck moved from chips to power and compute capacity. So I positioned three names up the risk curve, all riding the same wave. Here's the DD.
1. Constellation Energy ($CEG) — the boring one that actually prints money
This is my anchor. CEG runs the largest nuclear fleet in the US (21 reactors), and unlike every shiny pre-revenue reactor startup, it makes real money — $25.5B revenue and $2.32B net income last year. The thesis is brain-dead simple: AI data centers are projected to roughly quadruple US power demand over the next decade, nuclear is the only carbon-free baseload that runs 24/7, and CEG is locking in long-term supply contracts with hyperscalers right now — including restarting Three Mile Island specifically to feed Microsoft. New reactors take years to build. CEG already has the megawatts in the ground.
Why it runs into year-end: every new data-center power deal is a catalyst, and the macro tailwind (power scarcity) only gets louder. This is the picks-and-shovels play where you don't have to pray a single startup survives.
2. Oklo ($OKLO) — the high-beta SMR bet
One rung up. Oklo is a small-modular-reactor pure-play, and yes — it's basically pre-revenue. Own that risk. But the setup is spicy: it's down \~65% from its October high near $194, so a ton of froth is already gone, and the deal flow is legit. It's got a 1.2 GW agreement with Meta for a site in Ohio, an R&D partnership with Nvidia, DOE backing, and it just upsized its Aurora reactor to 75 MWe to chase data-center demand. HSBC initiated at Buy, $96 PT, flagging "imminent first revenue," and most covering analysts sit at Buy.
Why it runs: it's a recovery + catalyst story. Beaten down, with concrete deals that could de-risk the whole thesis. If first revenue actually lands and a hyperscaler contract converts, this re-rates violently.
3. IonQ ($IONQ) — the moonshot with a government backstop
Top of the risk curve. Full degen tier. IonQ is the largest pure-play quantum-computing company by revenue — \~$130M in 2025, guiding $225–245M for 2026 after a 77% revenue jump in Q1, and it's the first public quantum name to clear $100M in GAAP revenue. The kicker: in May the US government committed \~$2B across the quantum sector and is taking minority equity stakes in the players. IonQ popped 12% on that news even though it wasn't on the direct-investment list, because it validates the entire space. Cloud distribution through AWS/Azure/Google, pending SkyWater fab acquisition. Bull targets: B. Riley $100, Jefferies $85.
Why it runs: quantum is the single most momentum-driven theme in the market right now — and it now has Uncle Sam underwriting the narrative.
The risks (because this isn't a pump):
- All three are correlated to the same AI-capex cycle. If that rolls over — AI-bubble fears, a hyperscaler capex cut — they fall together. This is NOT a diversified basket.
- OKLO and IONQ are pre-profit / barely-profit and dilute regularly. Quantum names trade at absurd multiples (IonQ \~100x sales) and insiders across the sector have been heavy net sellers. Useful fault-tolerant quantum is still years out.
- OKLO has zero revenue and burns cash. "Imminent revenue" is a thesis, not a fact.
- Even CEG trades at a premium and is sensitive to power prices and rate moves.
TL;DR: AI buildout = power + compute scarcity. $CEG (safe, profitable nuclear) → $OKLO (high-beta SMR, beaten down + real deals) → $IONQ (quantum moonshot with a $2B government tailwind). Same thesis, three risk levels. Sized so a 50% drawdown on the speculative two won't wreck me.
Positions: \[drop your actual positions here\]
Not financial advice — I'm just a guy with a thesis and a brokerage account. Do your own DD.